Illusions of Reality

Clive Thompson recently wrote an interesting article (at http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/122/is-the-tipping-point-toast.html) based on Duncan Watts theory that, in a way opposes Malcolm Gladwell’s Tipping Point theory. However, for me, more interestingly, I noticed a difference in opinion on this between what Seth Godin had to say and what Guy Kawasaki thought!

Seth notes on his blog post (at http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/01/the-hyping-poin.html) that Watts is effectively not conflicting Gladwell and what Gladwell says holds good. On the other hand, Guy, on his blogpost (at http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2008/01/forget-the-a-li.html) noted the statement "It [achieving marketing success through influentials] just doesn’t work. A rare bunch of cool people just don’t have that power. And when you test the way marketers say the world works, it falls apart. There’s no there there.” from the original Thompson article. Guy also says "My money is on Watts."

I beleive that Seth’s point that Watts is not conflicting Gladwell doesnt appear to be correct. The original statement noted by Guy also suggest Watts saying to be in conflict to Gladwell (and also what some of Seth stuff says). However, I would still stick and very strongly support Gladwell and Seth theory that key people matter more than herd followers.

However, quoting one of Seth’s statements in his post:

"Unleashing the Ideavirus didn’t spread because ‘important’ people endorsed and promoted it. It spread because passionate people did."

I beleive an important point to note is that many a times passionate people would be the important ones. Take, for example, Drucker for management, Steve Jobs for the interface or art in the look of the product or infact Seth himself for the marketing and startup stuff!

Okay. Now I know that its been ages since Kindle is out but I’ve been lazy over putting this one down. But frankly speaking, first time I saw that Kindle thing on Amazon’s pages, I was like - why is Amazon doing that? I thought so because I have always been over-whelmingly impressed about Amazon does on its website. But as time passed by and as I looked through deeper, I felt so much Ipodish about Kindle. And now it really feels that this is Amazon’s iPod for readers.

So, what’s the best about Kindle:

Direct download of books via mobile network with no additional cost and hecks for the reader, I beleive, is the real killer here. This single feature will truly rock kindle version of book sales on Amazon - just because of the ease of getting stuff on your reader. That, integrated with Amazon website’s large collection (currently approx 90,000 titles on Kindle version) appears to be a perfect win-win. Infact, this one feature appears so interesting to me that I would say iPod folks can look into it for sure. Currently, I dont buy a lot of stuff from iTunes stores even at $ 0.99 but if they’d offer me to get any song anywhere, I am sure I’d end up buying so many just to avoid the trouble of connecting iPod to my PC and then all those hecks! I know mobile networks in past have tried delivering content through their networks, but I think - a content provider doing this is way better an idea since users are acquainted with their content. Users know iTunes stores, users know amazon store - users dont know Nokia music library downloads!

And whats not so great about Kindle?

Well, ofcourse the look, which everyone agrees sucks. But, apart from this aspect, I beleive no support for PDF eBooks reading is a major drawback. Now, I agree that Amazon would love to keep its books sales up by not allowing those geeky folks to read pirated eBook copies on their latest fantastic reader. But, the point is, Amazon is no one to act as DRM-nanny out here. Perhaps, this is where it needs to learn from iPod. And also from all those sinking companies who have tried to sell DRM music or tried their own ways to sell music in different ways. iTunes sells stuff for sure even when pirated MP3’s are a click away. That’s because there is perhaps a large population who are ready to buy rather than going through that pain. And ofcourse, there is other segment of population who are ready to get pirated stuff working howsoever painful it may be! So, even if Amazon tries to fight it, those geeky mongers are going to hack the features out and get it to work the way they want. So, then, why not have that hot feature in? Having observed Jeff Bezos, I beleive Kindle would have this feature soon.

So, with whom is this magic device competing?

Sony reader, perhaps, has been there even before Kindle. But, I beleive Amazon’s reach due to its website is going to be a single strength that will easily lead its victory over the reader. Ofcourse, Sony does not provide the download via mobile network feature. But, Amazon’s deep reach in the book reader’s community is going to nail it. Amazon is also selling the Kindle version of its books way cheaper and is constantly increasing the size of Kindle version selection.

Often when we think of the Gurus of today’s markets, we think of them as the true innovators - ones who’s concepts changed market paradigms. But, as I am reading more and more stuff on founders of great companies, my (amateur, limited and self developed) knowledge of psychology says that treating things in this heroic way is just something that brings a feeling of charm and perhaps thats why everone is not ready to look into the details and see if it was that princely.

I have been reading the book Founders at Work that captures interviews of many legends in the technology business arena on the initial days they spent starting their companies. And the more I read this stuff, more I get convinced to something I have thought in past but never got convinced at.

Reading that GUI and mouse was not Apple’s idea sounded like an exception to me earlier. The fact that Six Sigma was not Jack Welch’s baby again was taken down as exception. But, now reading this book, I have noticed very interesting aspects.

Max Levchin, PayPal cofounder started with ideo of building crypto for mobile devices. Catarina Fake, Flickr cofounder, started her company with her husband with the concept of making an online game. Mike Ramsay started Tivo with Jum Barton creating network servers for home to build a complete computerized home entertainment network.

These insights have all been very interesting to bring out a fact that great visionaries havent been Godly creatures knowing what’s going to happen 10 years down the line and building exactly that stuff. But probably, Godly creatures are the ones who have identified concepts from laboratories or changed their minds when they have seen something that will click. That way, its more about identifying a concept and then applying it in the right way that has been as important as the actual concept, or probably more important. And these things have not happened all pre-planned; one has to move ahead keeping the radars open - perhaps an important lesson - to analyze things but not over analyze (or in words of one of my friends, not to get caught in the analysis paralysis).